Layoffs fall again — but the seasonal hiring surge is missing
The News
US employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and the lowest for the month since 2022, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Planned hiring tells a more cautious story: employers announced 90,787 hires in September, down 23% from a year earlier and the lowest September total since 2011, as seasonal announcements stayed muted. Only Spirit Halloween and Michaels have announced seasonal plans so far — a combined 62,000 hires against 100,800 at this point last year. AI was cited in 21% of the year’s 573,195 job cuts, and technology accounts for 29% of all 2026 cuts, the report said.Why It Matters
Layoffs are down, but the line a TA leader should care about is the seasonal signal. Retailers and logistics firms normally telegraph Q4 hiring in September; this year they’re holding back, which points to a muted holiday season and a thinner seasonal labour market to recruit from and into. The AI figure is the second signal: automation is now the leading stated reason for job cuts year-to-date, which means workforce reshaping — not just hiring — is where automation is landing.Taking Action
All action is situated in your corporate context. These are starting points, not prescriptions — choose what fits.
Connect
Who to talk with in your enterprise
Your head of talent acquisition — pressure-test Q4 and seasonal hiring assumptions against what employers are actually announcing, especially if you staff retail, logistics or warehousing. Your workforce planning lead — revisit the AI-cuts line against your own restructuring conversations: is automation quietly being planned as the reason for future role reductions?Inspect
What to take a closer look at
Compare your own Q4 seasonal plan against last year: are you hiring into a market where seasonal demand is visibly lighter? And verify any restructuring language in your organisation is tied to a documented business reason — “AI” is now the leading stated cause of cuts, and auditors and employees alike will want specifics.Reflect
What to think about more deeply
If layoffs are at a three-year low for the month yet hiring plans are the weakest since 2011, what does “wait-and-see” actually mean for the people you were meant to be hiring?