Conference Board: Employment Trends Index Falls for Second Straight Month
The News
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined to 106.69 in June from a downwardly revised 106.90 in May, marking the second consecutive monthly drop. Jannik Schulz, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board, attributed the decline to a "low hire, low fire" environment where firms continue to limit both hiring and separations. The percentage of consumers who say jobs are "hard to get" rose to 22.5% — the highest since January 2021 — while initial unemployment claims increased to an average of 222,000, the largest monthly average so far in 2026. On the positive side, the percentage of firms unable to fill positions jumped 3 points to 32%, and temporary-help hiring rose for the second consecutive month.
Why It Matters
The ETI is a leading index — it signals where payroll growth is heading, not where it's been. Two consecutive declines suggest slower hiring ahead, which aligns with what most TA leaders are already feeling: req volumes that haven't recovered, longer approval cycles, and intensifying scrutiny on every hire. But the internal contradictions matter more than the headline. Consumer pessimism about job availability is at a four-year high while employer difficulty filling positions jumped 3 points. That gap — between people who can't find work and roles employers can't fill — is the skills mismatch your TA team is living inside every day.
Taking Action
All action is situated in your corporate context. These are starting points, not prescriptions — choose what fits.
Connect
Who to talk with in your enterprise
Your head of workforce planning and your CFO. The ETI's signal is straightforward: budget for a continued slow-hire environment through Q3. But the more interesting conversation is about the 32% of firms that can't fill positions — ask workforce planning which roles in your organisation fall into that category and whether your sourcing strategy reflects the reality that those roles require active investment, not passive posting. Your CFO needs to understand that "low hire" doesn't mean "no hire" — it means every approved req carries a higher cost of vacancy.
Inspect
What to take a closer look at
Pull your time-to-fill data for the last six months and segment by role type. The ETI data suggests the market is bifurcating: revenue-critical and scarce-skill roles are getting harder to fill while entry-level and process-heavy roles face tougher value tests. If your time-to-fill is rising across all categories uniformly, you may have a process problem. If it's rising only for specific role types, you have a market problem that requires targeted sourcing investment — not a blanket "we need to hire faster" mandate.
Reflect
What to think about more deeply
If consumers think jobs are harder to get than at any point since the pandemic, but a third of employers still can't fill open positions — is your TA team talking to the right candidates, or just more of the wrong ones?