UK Hiring Intentions Defy Global Cooling — but the North-South Gap Is Widening
The News
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for Q3 2026, based on interviews with 40,500 employers across 42 countries, found global hiring intentions cooling — the Net Employment Outlook fell five points quarter-on-quarter to 26%, with 33 of 42 countries reporting weaker outlooks. The UK was a notable outlier: its +37 NEO rose 10 points on the quarter and 18 points year-on-year, placing it fourth globally. Nearly half of UK employers (49%) plan to increase headcount, with information technology (46%) and construction (43%) leading sector demand.
Why It Matters
The UK data contains a tension that TA leaders should not ignore. While the national outlook is strong, hiring intentions are concentrated in mid-sized organisations and outside London: the North West leads at +48, the North East at +46, and London trails at +32. Meanwhile, 47% of hiring employers plan to recruit entry-level talent — a data point ManpowerGroup UK Managing Director Michael Stull called 'a step, albeit small, in the right direction' given the UK's persistent youth unemployment problem. If you're hiring in London for professional services roles, the market you're experiencing may not match the national headlines.
Taking Action
All action is situated in your corporate context. These are starting points, not prescriptions — choose what fits.
Connect
Who to talk with in your enterprise
Your HRBP team needs the regional breakdown. If your organisation has multiple UK sites, the competition for talent in Manchester or Newcastle may be significantly more intense than in London — and your compensation bands and sourcing strategy should reflect that. Your early-career programme lead should be aware that 47% of surveyed employers are targeting the same entry-level talent pool.
Inspect
What to take a closer look at
Compare your Q3 hiring plan by region against the ManpowerGroup sector and regional outlooks. If you're recruiting in a high-outlook region (North West, North East) for a high-demand sector (IT, construction), your time-to-fill assumptions from Q2 are likely to break. Stress-test your sourcing channels — are you fishing in the same pond as 49% of employers?
Reflect
What to think about more deeply
If 49% of UK employers are planning to hire while candidate availability is rising and pay growth is subdued, someone's expectations about who they can attract at what price are about to collide with reality. Is it you?